Doherty Institute explains what its COVID-19 vaccination modelling relies on
The Doherty Institute has reiterated its COVID-19 modelling for Australia once the country hits vaccination rates of 70 and 80 per cent also factors in other public health measures remaining in place.
The Doherty Institute assured Australians there was “light at the end of the tunnel” with a series of social media posts on Monday night.
In one of the posts, the institute stated opening up at 70 per cent vaccine coverage of the adult population would see just under 1500 deaths over six months.
That figure has been disputed, with other modelling suggesting there’ll still be 25,000 deaths if Australia opens up with 80 per cent coverage, along with another 270,000 people suffering the effects of “long” COVID.
Professor Sharon Lewin told Neil Mitchell said there were several ways to look at the data.
“I think the main message is that getting vaccinated, and high levels of vaccination, will bring benefits,” she said.
“But when we hit 70 per cent, or 80 per cent – there is no ‘Freedom Day’ – we don’t just suddenly go back to normal life and have no other public health measures in place.
“The models differ on including, or not including, public health measures.
“If you have no public health measures? Then yes, with 70 or 80 per cent vaccination we’ll still get many, many cases and deaths.
“What the Doherty Institute modelling did was factor in levels of public health measures, like test, trace, isolate and quarantine – these measures we’ve been living with that aren’t lockdowns.”
Statement on the Doherty Institute modelling:
The Doherty Institute understands how extremely challenging lockdown restrictions are for everyone.
— Doherty Institute (@TheDohertyInst) August 23, 2021
Press PLAY below to hear Professor Sharon Lewin explain in detail
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